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Thursday, April 2, 2009

Forex Robots - Why Most Never Make Money in Real Time and Destroy Equity

Forex robots are the preferred option of many forex traders but most are simply a way to lose money and the clue why is in the title of this article - the track records presented are always simulated in hindsight - which means there made up in simple terms...

Would you take driving lessons from someone who hadn't passed there test?

Of course not, so why would anyone trade a forex robot that had never been traded and proven in real time? Well lots of traders do and they either don't see the disclaimer, or are nave, greedy or both.

An Unfair Contest

The forex robots you see always have aggressive names that indicate they take on and beat the market - but it's a bit like a heavyweight boxer V a lightweight and the market is the heavy weight!

There aggressive names and fancy packaging and hype are no match for the brutal reality of price change in the real world of trading.

Curve Fitting is Doomed to Failure

The real problem is that they back test the rules and keep bending and optimizing them until they show a profit on the segment of data analysed but this is doomed to failure. Why?

Because the exact sequence of data never repeats exactly and you cannot change the rules in real time!

Markets are an Odds Game

This is known as curve fitting and it will never work on a market which is not orderly. The markets are an odds game not a game of certainties and you can never curve fit and win.

How to Win

If you want to win at forex trading you can by getting the right forex education and a simple robust forex trading system which you can apply with discipline and remember - it only needs to be simple, complicate a trading system to much and it will have to many elements to break.

So leave the forex robots to the greedy losing investors and make some effort, work smart and you can enjoy currency trading success.

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Reuters - Accounting giant KPMG was hit with a billion-dollar lawsuit on Wednesday over claims its "grossly negligent audits" helped trigger the collapse of a top subprime mortgage lender at the start of the U.S. housing crisis.

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Forex Trading Style- 7 Essential Indicators You Need

When developing your own forex trading style, there is a danger in becoming fascinated with indicators. The newer trader experiments with one, finds it doesn't work so well, then switches to another, then another, etc.

The list below highlights 7 key indicators that can be woven into your forex trading style. You may not need to go any further than this. Stick with the 7, practice them, get to know them inside out, and get the satisfaction of developing your own successful forex trading style.

#1: Candlesticks

Watch for a hammer, doji, head and shoulders pattern, 1-2-3 formation, double top or bottom.

#2: Trendlines

Draw common sense trendlines across the highs in a downtrend or lows in an uptrend. Watch for price to break the trendline and come back and test it.

#3: MACD

Watch for a difference between the highs and lows of MACD and price. When there is divergence watch closely for a good entry point once price has shifted in the direction of the divergence.

#4: 200 EMA

This indicator is an all time favorite for traders across the board. On higher time frames (1 hour, 4 hour, daily) take note whether price is above or below the 200 EMA to give you the sense of price direction.

#5: Pivot points

Take note of previous support and resistance lines as price will come back to retest these levels time and time again.

#6: Fibonacci

Learn how to use this tool well and take particular note of the 50 and 62 retracement levels, especially when they coincide with trendlines or previous support/resistance.

#7 Price Itself

Let price prove to you where it wants to go by setting entry orders rather than market orders when entering a trade. By setting an entry order, price has to reach the target you specify before pulling you into the trade.

Using Technical Indicators

It is important to acknowledge the probability that no indicator on its own is a good enough reason for entering or exiting a trade.

Your individual Forex trading style will evolve in time as you become familiar with the key indicators and probably rely heavily on just 2 or 3 out of the 7. However, it is crucial to get a combination factor when considering a trade. Ask questions such as:

  • While one indicator may show a clear signal, how do the other indicators line up?
  • Is that one signal running against the general conclusion drawn from the other indicators?

This is where your skill as a trader comes in as you assess the clues the indicators give and make a decision based on your perception and experience in the market.

Only time and practice can give you that. Once you are familiar with the top 7 indicators, spend most of your time and energy on developing the emotional and mental disciplines necessary for successful trading. This will eventually make up the most important part of your Forex trading style.

Click here to see how indicator #3, MACD, can help you avoid much anxiety:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/macd.html

Click here to learn how to use indicator #4, the 200 EMA, in a simple yet powerful way:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/Advisor/200EMA-forex-strategy.htm

For the best free economic calendars plus a free pivot point calculator and Fibonacci calculator click here:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/tools.html

Former AIG Chairman and Chief Executive Maurice Greenberg listens to a question from a reporter after a luncheon in Hong Kong March 26, 2009.   REUTERS/Bobby Yip   (CHINA BUSINESS HEADSHOT)Reuters - Maurice Greenberg said he was not responsible for problems at American International Group since they occurred after he left, the Wall Street Journal reported citing an interview with the former chief of the company.

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Forex Trading Leverage Rules - Forex Risk Management Guidelines

One of the main things which attract people to the Forex market is the high leverage which brokers offer Forex traders. Indeed, Forex leverage can offer substantial profits, yet using too big a leverage can also act against you and cause bigger losses to accumulate in a hurry.

How does Forex leverage work?

For instance, if you place a $500 deposit and are offered a 100:1 leverage, you can open trades of $50,000. This means that if the currency pair which you've chosen rises by 1%, you earn $500, or a 100% return on your investment. This is a huge return and can happen within a day or 2. Huge, right?

However, Forex leverage also has it's own special risks as well. Take the same example of a 100:1 leverage on a $500 deposit and let's say that your currency pair shifted 0.5% in the wrong direction. This means that you lost $250. That's right, half of the money you put in, a loss of 50% in one trade.

So, you see, selecting how big a Forex leverage you choose is an important decision which can literally make or break your trading experience. Just imagine a new trader trying a 100:1 leverage and end up losing his or her entire deposit on a 1% shift in the wrong direction. It's one of the reasons people think the Forex market is so risky. They lose their deposit in their first trade and are so turned off that they never try again.

If you're new, go for much smaller leverage levels. I recommend not going over 10:1 levels. If your position rises by 1% you gain a 10% return, which is still amazing. But if you lose, than only 10% of the deposit is gone and you have a lot more to work with and earn it back in future trades.

One of the key rules of Forex risk management is to choose a leverage lever which you can handle. If your deposit constitutes a large part of your finances, than choose a lower leverage 5:1 for example. Don't be tempted by tales of huge forex gains at 500:1 leverage. Most of the people only tell about their winning, not about their losses.

Forex trading is a long term enterprise. Don't allow yourself to be thrown out of the game by making one bad trade at a huge leverage.

To read more a recommended Forex automatic program, click here: Forex Killer EA Review. John Drummond works from home. He writes often on business, trading, and finances.

There is more than one forex trading software. To read John Drummond's review of the 2 best ones, click here: Automatic Forex Trading Software.

AP - The trustee for a California mortgage lender that collapsed two years after disclosing accounting errors sued accounting giant KPMG Wednesday, blaming it for its demise.

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Forex Trading Advice - 4 Common Sources of Advice Traders Take and Lose

There are some sources that give forex trading advice and they shouldn't be trusted and here we will look at what may seem good advice but is not, here are 4 examples...

Here they are in no particular order of importance - there all important!

1. Advice in A Forex Forum

The only people who hang around forums giving advice are, losing traders who just want to make themselves feel better, or vendors hoping to sell there products. If you want bad advice, a forum is a great place to go - steer clear.

2. Product Reviews

How can you independently review a forex product when you're selling it and have a vested interest in making it look good to make money?

Click most of the reviews and you see and you will normally go a site, where the writer gets a commission on the sale. There are loads of them on the net and the most popular ones involve the following:

- Day trading scalping courses or systems

Day trading and forex scalping doesn't work by its very nature and you should steer clear of them. You get presented with a track record (simulated in hindsight on paper not real money) but you wont win, ask for a real track record and see if you get one.

- Forex Robots

Again you get a simulated track record and the person normally tells you have to get used to the system, practice it and make it work. Strange that - if it's a robot, shouldn't you just plug it in and make money? Huge amount of these on the net and most will wipe you out.

3. News Stories From Experts

Don't those CNBC and CNN reports sound convincing?

They are and there well put together - but they won't make you any money.

Markets don't move on fundamental news (which is instantly discounted) they move on investor sentiment and future perception. Will Rogers once said:

"I only believe what I read in the papers"

He was joking - but there are huge amount of people, who believe what they hear from so called experts. Don't be drawn in by tempting stories, you will lose.

4. Brokers

Sure they do a good job placing orders etc but if they were any good at trading they wouldn't be brokers. A broker assisted account or broker news and tips, is unlikely to make you any money

So What is Good Advice?

Get down to your local bookstore or Amazon and stock up on some books from traders who have walked the walk, rather than talk the talk. You wnat people who have traded you can learn from, not just follow blindly.

Use the above and free resources online, to build your own forex trading system, based on forex charting.

Get a forex trading strategy you are confident in and this means building it yourself and it's a lot easier than many forex traders think.

At the end of the day, the best advice is your own from your trading signals generated from your system. In fact, it's the only forex advice that can lead you to long term currency trading success.

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Evelyn Davis blows kisses after ringing the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Wednesday, April 1, 2009.  (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)Reuters - Asian stocks shot to a three-month high on Thursday, building a three-day rally on hopes the U.S. economy has bottomed, while the euro was firm before a European Central Bank meeting at which rates may be cut for the last time in a while.

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